SIMIC

MANY are wondering if the labour negotiations at west coast ports will result in prolonged disruption to US supply chains, similar to the labour dispute in 2014-2015, reports New York's FreightWaves.

If there were a way to place a "prop" bet on this outcome, how have the odds changed since the expiration of the last port labour contract on July 1, 2022?



As the talks continue, the likelihood of a worst-case scenario increases.



Negotiations for the new contract began in May 2022, and now that the one-year mark has passed, concerns are growing.



There have been occasional signs of progress that have momentarily eased worries, potentially shifting the odds toward a less dramatic outcome.



On April 20, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) announced that agreements had been reached on specific key issues, including automation.



But many have noted the timing of this announcement. It coincided with the Senate nomination hearing of Julie Su, the Biden administration's nominee for the Department of Labour leadership position.



The progress update allowed Su to present positive results from her engagement with the parties involved.



Those who were sceptical of attaching too much significance to the April 20 announcement now appear to be correct. The current betting line has shifted in favour of the scenario involving a large-scale disruption.



The ILWU staged "concerted and disruptive work actions that effectively shut down operations at some marine terminals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach," said the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA).



The ILWU staged "similar work actions that have shut down or severely impacted operations at the ports of Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle and Hueneme."