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WTO:年末贸易量将“平稳”增长

作者: 发布时间:2017-11-15 浏览量:1589
WTO:年末贸易量将“平稳”增长

来源:American Shipper 2017-11-13

翻译:国际海事信息网 姜文杰 张运鸿

 

      尽管今年下半年的贸易量预计将继续增长,但世界贸易组织(WTO)预测,这一增长速度较2017年初将有所放缓。

 

      具体而言,2017年第四季度全球贸易景气指数(以下简称WTOI)为102.2点,低于该贸易机构8月份的102.6点。

 

      WTOI对出口订单量的测算显示,未来几个月将会有相对强劲的增长。然而,国际航空货运和世界港口集装箱吞吐量指数上升乏力,汽车产销量正在走出谷底。电子元器件和农产品贸易指数双双攀升。  

 

      世贸组织表示,这一结果与9月21日发布的世界商品贸易增长预测“基本一致”。根据该预测,2017年贸易额增长3.6%,而2017上半年贸易总量高于该预期值。

 

     (本文版权归国际海事信息网所有,转载请注明出处。)

 

WTO forecasts 'moderate' trade growth at year’s end

 

While trade volumes are expected to continue increasing through the rest of the year, the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts that the pace of this growth will be slower than at the start of 2017.

 

Specifically, the WTO Indicator (WTOI) for the fourth quarter of 2017 has registered at 102.2 signals, down from the trade body’s last reading of 102.6 signals in August.

   

WTOI’s measurement of export orders suggests moderately strong growth in the coming months. However, indices for international air freight and container throughput at the world’s ports suggest some lost momentum, and automobile production and sales numbers appear to be bottoming out. Indices covering trade in electronic components and agricultural commodities are both rising. 

 

The WTO said these results are “broadly consistent” with its upgraded forecast for world merchandise trade growth that was issued on Sept. 21. This forecast predicted 2017 trade expansion of 3.6 percent, following a stronger than expected start to trade activity the first half of this year.  

来源:simic

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