来源：American Shipper 2018-03-09
翻译：国际海事信息网 姜文杰 张运鸿
据Sea intelligence咨询公司首席执行官Lars Jensen透露，虽然集装箱运输行业中几大主要航运公司的合并已然接近尾声，但着眼于未来几年预计会出现的并购，未来五年全球范围内100个最大的区域或利基式航运公司中可能有多达30％的公司将不复存在。
这位驻哥本哈根的顾问本周在长滩举行的JOC TPM 2018会议上发表了他对该行业未来的看法。
Liner consolidation on the horizon for regional, niche carriers
The container shipping industry is “near the end game for consolidation among major carriers,” but perhaps as many as 30 percent of the 100 largest regional or niche carriers may disappear over the next five years as a result of mergers and acquisitions in the coming years, according to Lars Jensen, the chief executive officer of Seaintelligence Consulting.
The Copenhagen-based consultant offered his view of the future of the industry in a presentation at the JOC TPM 2018 conference in Long Beach this week.
He is also predicting that while there may be an upturn in freight rates this year and in 2019 as a result of tightening capacity, a downturn in the industry in 2020 seems likely as additional capacity enters the world fleet.
While consolidation among the largest carriers is likely coming to an end, he said “we are just getting started” with consolidation among smaller carriers, where 15 of the top 50 carriers have disappeared in the past five years. He said many niche carriers are increasing the size of vessels they are operating. While that may make them more efficient, he said they are bringing in too much capacity and “there is not enough room for all of them to play the scale game.”
Jensen had no predictions specifically on which companies will disappear.
“This is not about who is most competitive,” he said. “This is about who is most adept at getting access to more capital before they run out. Whoever is best at that game ends up running.”