来源：American Shipper 2018-08-03
翻译：国际海事信息网 王雅媛 张运鸿
Outlook for global container port demand positive
The medium-term outlook for global container port demand growth “is positive thanks to strong underlying economic momentum across the world’s major economies,” says Drewry.
“While there may be clouds on the horizon in the form of tariff and trade war fears, economic fundamentals are likely to win out in the long run,” said the London-based consultant, which has just released its Global Container Terminal Operators Annual Review and Forecast 2018.
Drewry’s latest five-year container port demand forecast is based on average global growth of just under 6 percent per annum. Drewry expects world container port throughput to grow by almost 240 million TEUs, from about 745 million TEUs today to about 985 million by 2020.
“The global container port industry is now of such a scale that 6 percent annual growth equates to around 45 million additional TEU each year, broadly equivalent to the size of the world’s largest container port, Shanghai,” said Drewry.
Neil Davidson, the senior analyst for ports and terminals, said the projected growth rate is less than the double-digit growth the terminal industry experienced in the early 2000s.
Growth slowed, then went backward in 2009, and was “sort of bubbling along” at around 3 percent to 4 percent per annum growth in between 2012 and 2014.
“And it looked as if that would be kind of the way it was going to be for the future. But then the last couple of years it’s really picked up again into sort of the 5-6 percent growth band. It’s sort of had a second lease on life, and our latest projections reflect that,” he said.
But, Davidson said, owners of container terminals and investors are taking a cautious approach.
“In the early days it was the risk-takers, the people who were looking for double-digit returns and would take the risk. Now we’re moving much more toward safer investors who are happy with 5 or 6 percent return on invested capital.”
“I think the big challenge, certainly for the U.S. West Coast — Los Angeles and Long Beach — is this whole question of having a large number of terminals in the ports when in fact the market wants fewer, bigger terminals. This need to consolidate terminals, I think, is one of the big challenges, particularly for the U.S. West Coast, going forward.”