X

国际海事信息网

扫描二维码关注微信公众号、微博

随时随地获取更多资讯和服务

让我们成为您身边的海事信息专家

  首页 >> 海外传真 >> 正文

全球集装箱港口需求:前景乐观

作者: 发布时间:2018-08-05 浏览量:519

全球集装箱港口需求:前景乐观
图片来自网络,版权属于原作者

来源:American Shipper 2018-08-03
翻译:国际海事信息网 王雅媛 张运鸿

       据德鲁里表示,就中期前景来看,全球集装箱港口的需求增长“得益于世界主要经济体强劲的潜在经济势头”。

       这家总部位于伦敦的咨询公司近期发布了《全球集装箱港口运营商年度报告2018》。该公司表示:“尽管关税和贸易战方面困难重重,但从长远来看,基本经济要素很可能会胜出。”

       德鲁里最近五年的集装箱港口需求预测是以全球不到6%的年均增长为依据的。据德鲁里预测,到2020年,世界集装箱港口吞吐量将增长近2.4亿TEU,从目前的7.45亿TEU增加到9.85亿TEU。

       德鲁里表示:“目前全球集装箱港口的规模已经达到了每年6%的增长,相当于每年吞吐量增加约4500万TEU,大致与世界最大集装箱港口上海港的规模相当。”

       港口和码头高级分析师Neil Davidson表示,预计的增长率要小于二十一世纪初期码头行业经历的两位数增长率。

       需求增长缓慢,于2009年减少,但在2012年至2014间表现不错,每年增长约3%至4%。

       他表示:“现在看来,未来的需求情况也会是这样。但是在过去的几年里,它真的又重获新生回到了5%-6%的增长区间,而我们的最新预测恰恰反映了这一点。”

       据Davidson所述,集装箱码头的所有者和投资者正采取谨慎的态度。

       “早期,那些希望获得两位数回报并愿意承担风险的人是风险承担者。现在,我们正向更注重安全的投资者迈进,他们对投资资本回报率达到5%或6%便感到满意。”

       他还表示:“我认为,对于美国西海岸,尤其是洛杉矶港和长滩港面临的最大挑战是在市场需要更少、更大的码头的实际条件下,如何处理码头过剩的情况。在我看来,码头的整合是一项重大挑战,特别是对美国西海岸的未来而言。”

(本文版权归国际海事信息网所有,图片版权归原作者,转载请注明出处。)

Outlook for global container port demand positive

The medium-term outlook for global container port demand growth “is positive thanks to strong underlying economic momentum across the world’s major economies,” says Drewry.

“While there may be clouds on the horizon in the form of tariff and trade war fears, economic fundamentals are likely to win out in the long run,” said the London-based consultant, which has just released its Global Container Terminal Operators Annual Review and Forecast 2018.

Drewry’s latest five-year container port demand forecast is based on average global growth of just under 6 percent per annum. Drewry expects world container port throughput to grow by almost 240 million TEUs, from about 745 million TEUs today to about 985 million by 2020.

“The global container port industry is now of such a scale that 6 percent annual growth equates to around 45 million additional TEU each year, broadly equivalent to the size of the world’s largest container port, Shanghai,” said Drewry.
Neil Davidson, the senior analyst for ports and terminals, said the projected growth rate is less than the double-digit growth the terminal industry experienced in the early 2000s.

Growth slowed, then went backward in 2009, and was “sort of bubbling along” at around 3 percent to 4 percent per annum growth in between 2012 and 2014.

“And it looked as if that would be kind of the way it was going to be for the future. But then the last couple of years it’s really picked up again into sort of the 5-6 percent growth band. It’s sort of had a second lease on life, and our latest projections reflect that,” he said.

But, Davidson said, owners of container terminals and investors are taking a cautious approach.

“In the early days it was the risk-takers, the people who were looking for double-digit returns and would take the risk. Now we’re moving much more toward safer investors who are happy with 5 or 6 percent return on invested capital.”

“I think the big challenge, certainly for the U.S. West Coast — Los Angeles and Long Beach — is this whole question of having a large number of terminals in the ports when in fact the market wants fewer, bigger terminals. This need to consolidate terminals, I think, is one of the big challenges, particularly for the U.S. West Coast, going forward.”


 

来源:simic