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德鲁里:航运业从中美贸易战中获益

作者:   发布时间:2019-06-26    浏览量:1418   字体大小:  A+   A- 

德鲁里:航运业从中美贸易战中获益
图片来自网络,版权属于原作者

来源:World Maritime News 2019-06-25
翻译:国际海事信息网 王雅媛 张运鸿
 
       航运咨询公司德鲁里(Drewry)表示,美国和中国之间不断升级的贸易敌对状态,对跨太平洋集装箱贸易是个坏消息,但也可能会导致中间货物数量的增加。  
 
       这场贸易战的潜在输家,将是那些向中国提供原材料和半成品,然后再将成品出口到美国的国家。该咨询公司解释称,随着中国将部分出口产品用于再出口,美国自身可能会受到影响。 
 
       中国的制造能力已经发展到几乎不需要世界其它地区的投入就能支撑其出口的程度,这应该会限制附带的损害。 
 
       德鲁里指出,中国在生产方面的独占性在一定程度上是造成过去几年世界贸易放缓的原因,中国自给自足的能力不断加强,这缓解了人们对贸易战引起的全球集装箱流动溢出效应的担忧。
 
       “跨太平洋地区首当其冲,处于孤立地位,但在一定程度上得到了贸易转移的补偿。”
 
       然而,德鲁里解释说,这并不意味着中国出口主导地位的终结。
 
       “尽管我们可以预见中国出口到美国的集装箱市场份额将有所下降,但中国出口机器的庞大规模意味着它不可能在一夜之间被取代。从去年的双边贸易量来看,中国约占美国制成品进口总额的三分之一,是东亚其它国家总和的两倍。”
 
       最后,德鲁里表示,随着新贸易联系的发展,集装箱市场预计会出现一些短期中断,但如果需求水平保持不变,生产的进一步细分将会促进航运的需求。 
 
       “在可预见的未来,中国仍将是全球集装箱出口中心,尽管其规模有所缩减。”
 
(本文版权归国际海事信息网所有,图片版权归原作者,转载请注明出处。)
 
Drewry: Shipping Industry’s Benefits from US-China Trade War
 
Escalating trade hostilities between the US and China spells bad news for the Transpacific container trade but should also result in higher volumes of intermediate goods, according to shipping consultancy Drewry.
 
Potential losers in this trade war will be those countries that provide the raw materials and semi-finished goods to China that go into the re-export of the final products to the US. The US itself could suffer as China uses up some of its exports for re-exports, the consultancy explained.
 
China has developed its manufacturing capacity to such an extent that it barely needs inputs from the rest of the world to support its exports, which should limit the collateral damage.
 
Drewry noted that China’s hogging of production is partly responsible for the slowdown in world trade witnessed in the past few years and its ever-growing self-sufficiency diminishes the fears of the spill-over effects from the trade war on global container flows.
 
“This should be a fairly isolated affair with the Transpacific bearing the brunt, compensated to some degree by trade diversion.”
 
However, Drewy explained that this does not mean the end of China’s export dominance.
 
“While we do foresee some erosion of its market share in outbound container flows to the US, the sheer size of its export machine means that it cannot be replaced overnight. China was responsible for around one-third of all US finished goods imports last year, when measured in bilateral trade, twice as much as the rest of East Asia combined.”
 
Summarizing, Drewry said that some short-term disruption to the container market is expected as new trading links are developed, but further fragmentation of production would boost the need for shipping, assuming demand levels are sustained.
 
“For the foreseeable future China will remain the world’s container export hub, albeit a slightly smaller one.”
 

来源:simic