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干散货市场:长期反弹仍成谜

作者:   发布时间:2019-07-07    浏览量:682   字体大小:  A+   A- 

干散货市场:长期反弹仍成谜
图片来自网络,版权属于原作者

来源:Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide 2019-07-05

翻译:国际海事信息网 黄子倩 张运鸿
 
        对从事干散货运输的企业来说,干散货市场未来走势仍是个谜。除了运费问题外,还有很多因素影响市场走势。在最近的周报中,航运经纪人Allied Shipbroking表示“目前已到年中,我们最需要做的就是认真分析目前我们所看到的干散货市场的糟糕形势。如果我们花点时间观察一下当下主要干散货指数,就会发现现在的指数相当‘接近’2018年末的数值。那么我们能否说当前的走势与年初的形势相当呢?答案当然是‘不能’”。
 
        Allied Shipbroking分析师Thomas Chasapis指出:“此外,目前市场的已实现收益(realized earnings)相对较‘好’(以2018年收盘价为基础),为什么人们对市场仍无信心?过高的不确定性和风险性可能是一个原因。不过在航运业中,从业者情绪不对称、行情的高波动性和航运业本身的风险性并不是什么新鲜事物,人们一直认为它们是核心特征。然而,很少能看到这些变量与其他基础规律之间存在这种程度的脱节。”
 
        Thomas Chasapis指出:“让我们从头仔细研究今年到现在为止的航运形势。今年年初,市场的势头非常低迷,大部分类型的散货船市场大幅下跌的迹象明显。实际上,2019年一季度(就回报率而言)是自2016年第三季度以来最差的一个季度。然而,2019年第二季度市场恢复得相当快。海岬型船在过去几个月里大幅跃升(6月份海岬型指数(BCI - 5TC)较4月份增长了152.97%,令人印象深刻)。虽然有这种反弹,但今年上半年的BDI指数平均值仍低于1000点(准确地说是898点)。货运市场的这种高度动荡的景象给市场上大多数人留下了强烈的负面影响。在过去两年里,人们感觉市场正在平稳复苏,稳定性增加,整体态势更加积极。大多数人似乎乐观地认为,2019年对干散货市场来说将是更好的一年。但正好相反,我们在过去6个月里面对的是相对较差的回报、悲观情绪、高波动性和脆弱的市场动态。”
 
        他补充说:“单看BDI指数,2019年与2018年全年相比,其平均值上升了57%,有一定变化。进一步来看,通过使用标准偏差作为波动性的衡量标准,再看看理论上最稳定的灵便型船市场,我们发现2019年这一指数将上升52.5%。总之,我们目前应该坚持乐观态度。市场在一定程度上已经复苏,预示着年底前有可能形成更好的市场环境。然而,市场行情必须创新高,才能勉强与去年的表现持平,这也是事实。就多数资产类别在2019年最后两个季度的收盘数字而言,票据市场(paper market)(作为衡量未来从业者情绪的指标)已经处于上行势头。希望市场能够将好势头延续下去,获得不错的表现(如果2019年最后一个季度足够稳健的话,应该能够实现这一目标)。不过我们仍需谨慎对待市场行情,因为绝对回报率(returns in absolute terms)只能说明一半问题,而更全面的风险调整资产回报率(risk-adjusted returns)才是更有力的指标,能够显示市场的真正潜力(至少从长期来看)。”
 
       (本文版权归国际海事信息网所有,图片版权归原作者,转载请注明出处。)
 
Dry Bulk Market: A Long-Term Rebound Remains an Enigma
 
The dry bulk market remains a conundrum for those involved, as the course of freight rates hasn’t been all about fundamentals, with more factors entering into play. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “having reach the midpoint of the year, it seems to be as good point as any to reflect on what we have seen in the year so far in the troubled dry bulk market. If we just take a moment and observe the current levels of the main dry bulk indices, we would see that we are relatively “close” to those levels witnessed at the close of 2018. So, can we say that the current trajectory is comparable to that of the very beginning of the year? The answer would be an emphatic “No”.
 
According to Mr. Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst with Allied, “moreover, given that realized earnings, at this exact moment, are relatively “good” (while using the closing figures of 2018 as a base), why is there such a “poor” feeling being expressed towards the market? Excessive levels of uncertainty and risk could be a rather good respond. Notwithstanding this, asymmetries in sentiment, high volatility and the risky nature of the shipping are nothing new in the shipping industry and are usually described as core characteristics. However, it is on rare occasion that see this level of disconnect between these variables and other core fundamentals”.
 
“Let’s take things from the start and look more closely at what we have seen this year so far. The market started off the year with a very bad momentum, with most size segments showing strong signs of a sharp drop taking place. In fact, 1Q2019 was the worst quarter (in terms of returns) since the very distant 3Q2016. Yet, during 2Q2019 we saw the market recover relatively quickly, with the Capesize segment witnessing huge jumps the past couple of months (the average figure of the BCI – 5TC rose in June by an impressive 152.97% when compared with that of April). Despite this rally though, the mean level of the BDI index remained below the 1,000bp mark (898bp to be precise) for the first half of the year. This highly turbulent scene in the freight market has left a strongly negative after taste to most in the market. Over the previous 2 years there was a feel that the market was moving towards a fair recovery, but also converging towards higher stability and more positive overall fundamentals taking shape. Most seemed to be optimistic that 2019 would turn out to be an even better year for the dry bulk market. Instead it seems that we have come face to face over the past 6 months with relatively poor returns, bearish sentiment, high volatility and fragile market dynamics”, said Chasapis.
 
He added that “looking at the BDI on its own, we have seen a degree of variation relative to the average value rise in 2019 by 57% when compared to the whole of 2018. Taking this point further by using standard deviation as measure for volatility and taking a look at the Handysize market which is theoretically the most stable size segment, we see this figure rise by 52.5% in 2019. All-in-all we should stick to the positives for the time being. The market has already recovered by a fair amount, underlying the fact that there is potential for even better market conditions to take shape before the end of the year. Yet, it is also true that the market must reach new peaks, in order to be at least on par with last year’s performance. The paper market (as a measure of forward sentiment) is already on an upward momentum in terms of closing numbers for the final 2 quarters of 2019 for most asset classes. Hopefully the market will follow through on this promise, and good numbers will be achieved (a firm final quarter should be able to do the trick). Nevertheless, a caveat still lays at the market’s core, given that returns in absolute terms only tell half the story while more thorough risk-adjusted returns are more robust metric to show the true potential the market holds (for the long-term at least)”, Allied’s analyst concluded.

来源:simic