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巴西12月原油出口创下历史新高:中国需求推动

作者:   发布时间:2020-01-23    浏览量:271   字体大小:  A+   A- 

巴西12月原油出口创下历史新高:中国需求推动
图片来自网络,版权属于原作者

来源:Hellenic Shipping News 2020-01-23
翻译:国际海事信息网 王雅媛 张运鸿
 
       随着中国继续向巴西寻求原油供应,巴西原油出口在2019年12月达到870万吨,创下纪录。
 
       全年出口量比2018年增长了5%。
 
       12月的情况与总体趋势相符,这表明中国越来越倾向选择向巴西进口原油,以满足其部分需求。此前巴西原油月度出口纪录是在2018年7月创下的,出口量达810万吨,当时有41%的原油输往中国。2019年12月,64%的原油出口流向中国。
 
       2019年,巴西总原油出口的63%流向了中国。在五年时间里,原油出口量较2014年的20%增长了42%。巴西对中国的出口在2019年比2018年增长了21%。尽管巴西原油的最大份额被运往中国,但截至2019年前11个月,巴西仅占中国原油进口的8%。
 
       BIMCO(波罗的海国际航运公会)首席航运分析师Peter Sand表示:“过去几年,美国的原油出口一直是热门话题,但事实证明,巴西的原油出口也是一个值得关注的有趣动向。去年12月,巴西原油出口破纪录,给油轮市场带来了积极的发展,巴西到中国的长途贸易带来了吨英里(海运货物贸易周转量)的强劲上涨。”
 
       近年来,巴西的原油产量稳步上升,这主要得益于盐下油田中提取的石油,该油田位于由厚厚岩石层和盐层包裹的巴西大陆架近海。巴西国家石油管理局(ANP)的数据显示,巴西约95%的石油产自近海。深海石油开采是一个成本高昂的过程,通常需要使用先进的浮式生产储油卸油船(FPSO)。
 
       尽管如此,巴西近年来还是设法提高了产量。2019年11月,日产量总计300万桶,较2018年11月增长20%。
 
       从2010年到2018年,年平均石油产量从200万桶/日上升到260万桶/日,增长了34%,到2019年,这一数字将被大幅超越,今年前11个月的平均产量为270万桶/日。2019年11月是产量最高的一年,日产300万桶,比2018年同期增长了20%。
 
       最近,中美两国签署了第一阶段贸易协议。在该协议中,中国承诺增加能源等大宗商品的进口。如果该协定导致贸易转移而非贸易创造,那么它可能会减缓巴西出口的吨英里(海运货物贸易周转量)增长。包括中国能源供应商多样化和年度增长在内的几个因素指向了另一个方向。然而,现在预测中国是否会将原油进口从巴西转向美国,可能还为时过早。
 
       无论中美第一阶段贸易协定的结果如何,巴西原油出口暂时给原油油轮市场带来了积极的发展,该市场在2019年经历了船队的高速增长。
 
(本文版权归国际海事信息网所有,图片版权归原作者,转载请注明出处。)
 
China’s Thirst For Crude Oil Pushes Brazil’s December Exports To All-Time High
 
Brazilian crude oil exports hit a record high in December 2019 with a total 8.7 million tonnes of crude oil exported, as China continues to turn to Brazil for crude.
 
Annual export volumes grew by 5% compared to 2018.
 
The December picture matches the overall trend which shows that China has increasingly gone to Brazil to cover part of its crude oil demand. The previous monthly record for Brazilian crude oil exports of 8.1 million tonnes was set in July 2018, at which time 41% of the crude oil was sent to China. In December 2019, 64% of total crude exports want to China.
 
In 2019, 63% of Brazil’s total crude oil exports went to China. That was a 42% jump over a five-year period, from 20% of crude exports in 2014. Brazilian exports to China grew by 21% in 2019 compared to 2018. While the lion share of Brazilian crude oil was shipped to China, Brazil only accounted for 8% of Chinese crude oil imports through the first 11 months of 2019.
 
“US crude oil exports have been the talk of the town in past years, yet crude oil exports from Brazil are also proving to be an interesting development to watch out for. The record-breaking Brazilian crude oil exports in December bring a positive development to the crude oil tanker market with a strong tonne-mile upside generated by the long-haul trade from Brazil to China,” says BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand.
 
Brazilian crude oil production has steadily risen in recent years, driven largely by oil extracted from the pre-salt oil deposits located offshore on the Brazilian continental shelf under thick layers of rock and salt. Data from ANP, Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency, indicates that roughly 95% of Brazilian oil is produced offshore. Extracting offshore oil deep underneath the surface is a costly process, often requiring the use of advanced Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) ships.
 
Nonetheless, Brazil has managed to ramp up production in recent years. In November 2019, a total of 3 million barrels per day (m/bpd) were produced, a 20% jump compared to November 2018.
 
From 2010 to 2018, annual average oil production rose 34% from 2m/bpd to 2.6m/bpd, which is set to be surpassed by a fair margin in 2019, having averaged 2.7m/bpd in the first 11 months of the year. November 2019 marked the highest level of production ever with a total of 3m/bpd produced, a 20% jump compared to the same month in 2018.
 
The recently inked US-China phase one trade deal, in which China has committed to increase its imports of, amongst other things, energy commodities, could slow the tonne-mile growth of Brazilian exports if the deal results in trade diversion rather than trade creation. Several factors, including China’s energy supplier diversification and yearly growth, point in the other direction. It may however be too early to forecast whether China will divert its crude oil imports from Brazil to the US.
 
Whatever the outcome from the US-China phase one trade deal, Brazilian crude oil exports have, for the time being, brought a positive development to the crude oil tanker market, which experienced high fleet growth in 2019.
 

来源:simic