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全球20大集装箱运输公司现状分析(二)

作者: 发布时间:2011-09-08 浏览量:6956

来源:American shipper    发表日期:8/30/2011 14:24:29

翻译:姚婉悦 汪涛 张运鸿

2010年后期,航运业大型货船的订购量占现存船量的比例归于平衡,之后这些新订大型货船将会使公司载运量逼近饱和,但 在一些分析者看来,这个比例其实并不高,不会在三年内产生载量饱和问题。那些建议也将不会在我们的耳畔纷飞。 
      2011年初,这些大型航运公司已拥有162艘货船,10000只标准箱,计划至2014年底增加更多的发货量。这些数据在上述订单详细说明之前就已记录,不包括Hapag-Lloyd(赫伯罗特货柜航运有限公司)载量为13000标准箱的系列货船(已于12月份订购)以及APL(美国总统轮船)于2007年订购的六艘货船。此外,仍有100多艘可容纳7500到10000标准箱的货船正在订购中,同时发货。

     这还并没有将潜在订单计算在内。前十之中的 Evergreen (长荣海运股份有限公司)和CSAV(智利南美航运公司),在其船队或订单中并没有这种巨型货轮。而在现存船队的订单中,CMA CGM(法国达飞海运集团)目前所占数量也相当的小。迄今,日本航运公司也已减少载量为10000TEU的货船数量。可以想象在不久的将来公司订货会进一步发展。

     如果在接下来的几年内需求并未如期增长,运输行业确有一些措施以缓解货船载量饱和,比如拆船,延迟发货。
Trevor Crowe,克拉克森的高级集装箱运输分析师, 于四月伦敦航运业会议上说到,他并未想到预订在2011和2012年运送的280万标装箱真的能发货,缓解了承运公司的压力。同时他认为班轮承运人的订单管理工作做的很好。

      截至八月中旬,总订货单占了现有船队的26%,相较于2008年的56%来说,处于一个比较合理的地位。然而,虽然相对于目前船队规模而言,这些数字并不能代表强大的运力,但感性上,这些订单却在无形中增进了承运者和托运人,航运公司和金融业之间的关系。
另外,这些数字尚未完全解释这些只适用于东西主要航线的大型船只 对于短程运输将产生怎样的影响。适用于中小型企业的利基贸易新增大量巴拿马巨型商船,可能会将运力过剩问题带到经济更有望增长的地区。
因此,随着全球船队规模的上升,订购量占现存载运容量的比例,以及保持比例平衡的要素也将发生改变。即当前船队容量为900万标箱,而订购容量为300万,占33%。同样,当前船队容量为1500万左右时,同样的三百万标箱便只能占到20%

      但无论如何,三百万标箱都需在同一期限内融入进全球船队。随着船队发展,在历史条件下,即使订购量占现有载运容量的比例下降至某一合理水平,对新增的载运能力的需求是否就能从根本上得到改变呢?

   “不悲观估计,未来运力过剩,交易不景气以及成本的提高,这一系列的因素已经引起了高度关注,”海事顾问Dynamar在其Dynaliners交易审查2011中写道,“自然外推一直害怕回到市场份额的追逐。假如返回市场,无疑是令人沮丧的,考虑到在2008年末航运业表现出来的速度,灵活性和创造性,其在2010年里货物/载运能力/速率方程的管理工作将会做得更好。”

    2011年的变化: 通过今年大批货物的发送,20大集装箱运输公司的全球货柜船队去年增长了10%以上,所运标装箱达1320万。自2010年八月,排名公司中近一半增长超过10%,东方海外占据位首,增长了19%。
    单单是排名前四的航运公司(马士基,硕士,达飞及中国远洋)就为船队增加了近1百万标箱的容纳,超过了自去年起的排名前20报告所增加的所有容纳量的四分之三。正如前面所说,前排的公司一直遥遥领先。
前20名中仅有两个公司在过去12个月里削减了船队载运量,APL(美国总统轮船)便是其中之一(另一个为CSAV,南美轮船 ),但是APL也是在前20名里惟一一个订购载运量占现有的船队比例很大的承运公司。
     Evergreen(长荣海运)的订单比例和船队规模并不算大。尽管没有载量1万标箱甚至更大的型号的货轮,台湾航线去年在订单中增添了25艘货轮,总载量达22万标箱。中远集团增长了几近18%晋升前四,达到一个可以长期扩大船队规模的地位。
     与去年不同,没有一个承运公司的排名有较大的波动,前20里也没有新成员加入。除了OOCL(东方海外)之外,Hamburg Süd(汉堡南方航运)的容量增长了 12.4%,增长显著。以大量新到的小型船舶著称,这些小型船是特别为南美市场重要港口设计的。

    UASA(阿拉伯轮船),进入了前20,开始了它的载量13000标准箱货轮的首次运送,另有八艘货船一同前行。China Shipping(中国海运)也收到了其第一艘可运载14000标准装箱的巨轮。以星和杨明正逐渐减少他们的订单,与此同时,NYK(日本邮船)和“K”(川崎汽船)已在近期采取策略,降低他们对已有货柜轮的依赖性。
    现在这两家日本公司在前20里载运量订单一直保持最少,2010年八月订单已经低于最低程度。川崎拥有的载运量实际上在过去的12个月里下降了约1%,甚至在那段时间只有9艘船用于发货。由于一些运送得到预订,NYK的载运量在做出战略转移之前增长了5%。
    服务差距:大型船只主要用于亚欧航线,几乎所有载量超过一万标装箱的货船都在这条航线进行运作。然而另一种评测前20名航运公司的标准则是这些公司网络工作的完备程度。

All these new, large ships threaten to create a new overhang of capacity, after the industry had returned to a balanced ratio in late 2010 — a ratio some analysts actually said was low enough to create undercapacity in three years’ time. You don’t hear those suggestions much anymore.
   At the start of 2011, there were 162 vessels 10,000 TEUs or larger slated for delivery through 2014. That was before all the orders detailed above, with the exception of Hapag-Lloyd’s series of 13,000-TEU ships (ordered in December) and six of APL’s ships already ordered in 2007. What’s more, there are more than 100 vessels on order in the 7,500-to-10,000-TEU category due for delivery in the same timeframe.

   And that doesn’t even factor in potential orders. Top 10 lines Evergreen and CSAV have no such mega-ships in their fleets or order books. CMA CGM’s order book, as a percentage of its existing fleet, is now quite small. The Japanese lines have so far refrained from ordering 10,000-TEU vessels. There are imaginable scenarios where the order book could grow further in the near future.
   The carrier industry does have some ways to release the pressure of a new capacity overhang if demand doesn’t grow as expected in the next few years. Ships can be scrapped, deliveries can be delayed.
   Trevor Crowe, senior container shipping analyst for Clarksons, said at an industry conference in London in April that he didn’t expect all of the roughly 2.8 million TEUs of total capacity due for delivery in 2011 and 2012 to actually be delivered, easing the pressure on carriers. He also said at the time that he thought liner carriers were doing a good job of managing the order book.
   As of mid-August, the total order book represented about 26 percent of the current fleet, a quite reasonable level in historic terms. It was at 56 percent in 2008, for comparison. But while the numbers don’t suggest too much capacity is on order relative to the size of the current fleet, there’s the intangible and emotional effect that such vessel orders have on the relationship between carriers and shippers, as well as carriers and the financial industry.
   The numbers also don’t fully explain the effect that all these large vessels — which will necessarily only fit within large east/west trades — will have on smaller trades. A large cascade of fairly new post-Panamax vessels into niche trades could bring the overcapacity problem into regions with more promising growth rates.
   Then there’s this: as the global fleet size rises, the proportion of ordered to existing capacity, and what constitutes a balanced ratio, will change. In other words, 3 million TEUs ordered against an existing fleet of 9 million TEUs represents 33 percent. Those same 3 million TEUs ordered against a current fleet of roughly 15 million TEUs would represent only 20 percent.
   But either way, 3 million TEUs need to be integrated into global fleets in a similar time frame. Does the need for new capacity fundamentally change, as the fleet grows, even if the proportion goes down to a level considered reasonable in historic terms?


“The ordering of these mega-container vessels reflects the fundamental change in liner business dynamics, being that the sustained increase in fuel prices has seen operating cost outweigh capital cost per TEU.”

 

OOCL

 


   “The combination of perceived future overcapacity, struggling volumes, rates and elevated costs has brought a certain amount of caution, if not downright pessimism, to the fore again,” maritime consultant Dynamar wrote in its Dynaliners Trades Review 2011. “A natural extrapolation has been the fear of a return to market share chasing. Were this to return to the market, then there would be an undoubted air of disappointment, considering the speed, flexibility and creativity shown in late 2008 and into 2010 to manage the cargo/capacity/rates equation much better.”

Changes In 2011. Driven by scores of deliveries this year, the global containership fleet of the top 20 container lines grew more than 10 percent in the last year to 13.2 million TEUs. Nearly half the table saw their fleets grow by more than 10 percent since August 2010, topped by OOCL, whose fleet grew 19 percent.
   The top four lines alone (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and China Shipping) added nearly 1 million TEUs of capacity to the fleet, more than three-quarters of all the capacity added since last year’s Top 20 report. As said before, the top of the table keeps moving away from the pack.
   APL was one of only two lines in the top 20 to shed fleet capacity in the last 12 months (CSAV being the other), though APL also has a larger proportion of order book capacity to current fleet capacity of any carrier in the top 20.
   Evergreen line is close, both in order book ratio and in fleet size. The Taiwanese line added 25 vessels, accounting for 220,000 TEUs, to its order book the past year, though none are in the 10,000-TEU-or-larger category. COSCO added nearly 18 percent to rise into the top four, a place it could occupy for some time given its own long-term fleet expansion program.
   Unlike last year, there hasn’t been a significant move up or down the table by any carriers, and there are no new entrants in the top 20. Aside from OOCL, Hamburg Süd had notable capacity growth of 12.4 percent, marked by the arrival of its new large-volume, shallow-draft vessels specially designed for ports in its key South American market.
   UASC, coming in at No. 20, took delivery of its first 13,000-TEU ship, with eight more on the way. China Shipping also received its first 14,000-TEU mega-vessel. Zim and Yang Ming are gradually drawing down their order books, while NYK Line and “K” Line have followed through on strategies to decrease their reliance on owned containerships in the short term.
   The two Japanese lines now maintain the smallest order books in the top 20 by capacity, and both order books shrank from already modest levels in August 2010. “K” Line’s owned capacity actually declined by about 1 percent in the last 12 months, even as it took delivery of nine vessels in that time. NYK’s owned capacity grew 5 percent on delivery of ships ordered before its strategic shift.

Gaps In Service. The big-ship phenomenon has been concentrated in the Asia/Europe trade, with virtually all the ships larger than 10,000 TEUs operating on that trade. But another measure by which to analyze the top 20 liner carriers is how complete their networks are.

 

 

 

 

来源:American shipper

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