来源：American shipper 发表日期：8/30/2011 14:24:29
翻译：姚婉悦 汪涛 张运鸿
这还并没有将潜在订单计算在内。前十之中的 Evergreen （长荣海运股份有限公司）和CSAV（智利南美航运公司），在其船队或订单中并没有这种巨型货轮。而在现存船队的订单中，CMA CGM(法国达飞海运集团)目前所占数量也相当的小。迄今，日本航运公司也已减少载量为10000TEU的货船数量。可以想象在不久的将来公司订货会进一步发展。
Trevor Crowe，克拉克森的高级集装箱运输分析师， 于四月伦敦航运业会议上说到，他并未想到预订在2011和2012年运送的280万标装箱真的能发货，缓解了承运公司的压力。同时他认为班轮承运人的订单管理工作做的很好。
与去年不同，没有一个承运公司的排名有较大的波动，前20里也没有新成员加入。除了OOCL（东方海外）之外，Hamburg Süd（汉堡南方航运）的容量增长了 12.4%，增长显著。以大量新到的小型船舶著称，这些小型船是特别为南美市场重要港口设计的。
All these new, large ships threaten to create a new overhang of capacity, after the industry had returned to a balanced ratio in late 2010 — a ratio some analysts actually said was low enough to create undercapacity in three years’ time. You don’t hear those suggestions much anymore.
At the start of 2011, there were 162 vessels 10,000 TEUs or larger slated for delivery through 2014. That was before all the orders detailed above, with the exception of Hapag-Lloyd’s series of 13,000-TEU ships (ordered in December) and six of APL’s ships already ordered in 2007. What’s more, there are more than 100 vessels on order in the 7,500-to-10,000-TEU category due for delivery in the same timeframe.
And that doesn’t even factor in potential orders. Top 10 lines Evergreen and CSAV have no such mega-ships in their fleets or order books. CMA CGM’s order book, as a percentage of its existing fleet, is now quite small. The Japanese lines have so far refrained from ordering 10,000-TEU vessels. There are imaginable scenarios where the order book could grow further in the near future.
The carrier industry does have some ways to release the pressure of a new capacity overhang if demand doesn’t grow as expected in the next few years. Ships can be scrapped, deliveries can be delayed.
Trevor Crowe, senior container shipping analyst for Clarksons, said at an industry conference in
As of mid-August, the total order book represented about 26 percent of the current fleet, a quite reasonable level in historic terms. It was at 56 percent in 2008, for comparison. But while the numbers don’t suggest too much capacity is on order relative to the size of the current fleet, there’s the intangible and emotional effect that such vessel orders have on the relationship between carriers and shippers, as well as carriers and the financial industry.
The numbers also don’t fully explain the effect that all these large vessels — which will necessarily only fit within large east/west trades — will have on smaller trades. A large cascade of fairly new post-Panamax vessels into niche trades could bring the overcapacity problem into regions with more promising growth rates.
Then there’s this: as the global fleet size rises, the proportion of ordered to existing capacity, and what constitutes a balanced ratio, will change. In other words, 3 million TEUs ordered against an existing fleet of 9 million TEUs represents 33 percent. Those same 3 million TEUs ordered against a current fleet of roughly 15 million TEUs would represent only 20 percent.
But either way, 3 million TEUs need to be integrated into global fleets in a similar time frame. Does the need for new capacity fundamentally change, as the fleet grows, even if the proportion goes down to a level considered reasonable in historic terms?
“The ordering of these mega-container vessels reflects the fundamental change in liner business dynamics, being that the sustained increase in fuel prices has seen operating cost outweigh capital cost per TEU.”
“The combination of perceived future overcapacity, struggling volumes, rates and elevated costs has brought a certain amount of caution, if not downright pessimism, to the fore again,” maritime consultant Dynamar wrote in its Dynaliners Trades Review 2011. “A natural extrapolation has been the fear of a return to market share chasing. Were this to return to the market, then there would be an undoubted air of disappointment, considering the speed, flexibility and creativity shown in late 2008 and into 2010 to manage the cargo/capacity/rates equation much better.”
Changes In 2011. Driven by scores of deliveries this year, the global containership fleet of the top 20 container lines grew more than 10 percent in the last year to 13.2 million TEUs. Nearly half the table saw their fleets grow by more than 10 percent since August 2010, topped by OOCL, whose fleet grew 19 percent.
The top four lines alone (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and China Shipping) added nearly 1 million TEUs of capacity to the fleet, more than three-quarters of all the capacity added since last year’s Top 20 report. As said before, the top of the table keeps moving away from the pack.
APL was one of only two lines in the top 20 to shed fleet capacity in the last 12 months (CSAV being the other), though APL also has a larger proportion of order book capacity to current fleet capacity of any carrier in the top 20.
Evergreen line is close, both in order book ratio and in fleet size. The Taiwanese line added 25 vessels, accounting for 220,000 TEUs, to its order book the past year, though none are in the 10,000-TEU-or-larger category. COSCO added nearly 18 percent to rise into the top four, a place it could occupy for some time given its own long-term fleet expansion program.
Unlike last year, there hasn’t been a significant move up or down the table by any carriers, and there are no new entrants in the top 20. Aside from OOCL, Hamburg Süd had notable capacity growth of 12.4 percent, marked by the arrival of its new large-volume, shallow-draft vessels specially designed for ports in its key South American market.
UASC, coming in at No. 20, took delivery of its first 13,000-TEU ship, with eight more on the way. China Shipping also received its first 14,000-TEU mega-vessel. Zim and Yang Ming are gradually drawing down their order books, while NYK Line and “K” Line have followed through on strategies to decrease their reliance on owned containerships in the short term.
The two Japanese lines now maintain the smallest order books in the top 20 by capacity, and both order books shrank from already modest levels in August 2010. “K” Line’s owned capacity actually declined by about 1 percent in the last 12 months, even as it took delivery of nine vessels in that time. NYK’s owned capacity grew 5 percent on delivery of ships ordered before its strategic shift.
Gaps In Service. The big-ship phenomenon has been concentrated in the Asia/Europe trade, with virtually all the ships larger than 10,000 TEUs operating on that trade. But another measure by which to analyze the top 20 liner carriers is how complete their networks are.