SIMIC

The retail trade association, citing continued inflation and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to increase interest rates, is forecasting the first sustained monthly declines in imports since before the Covid crisis.

"Consumers are still buying, but the cargo surge we saw during the past two years appears to be slowing down," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold. "Cargo volumes are solidly above pre-pandemic levels, but the rate of growth has slowed and even slid into negative numbers compared with unusually high volumes last year."

For the full year, 2022, the NRF's Global Port Tracker lowered its forecasted total to 26.1 million TEU. The forecast is lower by about one per cent at 200,000 TEU, versus the previous forecast in August.

However, port tracker which tallies imports at the major US seaports still sees a gain of 1.2 per cent above 2021's annual record of 25.8 million TEU.

The cargo data comes as NRF continues to forecast that 2022 retail sales will grow between six and eight per cent over 2021. Sales were up six per cent during the first seven months of the year according to the NRF.

Said Mr Gold: "The key now is dealing with ongoing supply chain issues around the globe and with labour negotiations at west coast ports and freight railroads. Smooth operations at the ports and on the rails are crucial as we enter the busy holiday season."

Said Global Port Tracker founder and CEO Ben Hacket: "The strongest growth is forecast to occur on the East and Gulf coasts, although not all the volume that has shifted there in response to West coast congestion and labour talks will remain in 2023."