SIMIC

The forwarder said that, given these challenges, it will be hard for carriers to maintain service levels, and beneficial cargo owners will find it harder to manage their ocean traffic. This should create an opening for NVOs "to take market share back," he predicted.

Container carriers will be struggling with downward rate pressure and elevated costs, he said. And in response to the falling demand, carriers will introduce more blanked sailings and cuts that will affect service levels further, reports London's The Loadstar.

Liner executives will have their hands full with too much capacity chasing lower demand and maintaining service levels. Craig Grossgart, svp ocean of SEKO Logistics said that structural overcapacity will continue well beyond 2023.

Recent months have seen a dizzying slump in container rates in the key tradelanes.

The pain for carriers will continue for some time, Mr Grossgart noted, adding: "Structurally we have entered a market that is fundamentally over-tonnaged and will be through 2025."

Whereas predictions for next year indicate modest growth in demand, capacity will balloon.

Buoyed by soaring demand and rates, with additional impetus from anticipation of scrapping older vessels as the IMO's Carbon Intensity Calculator comes into effect, carriers have splurged on orders for new ships - 8 per cent fleet growth next year, up from 4 per cent this year, Mr Grossgart noted.

In addition, effective capacity will be elevated as the slowing market whittles away at the congestion that has tied up vessels, he pointed out. This should boost capacity by 8-10 per cent, he said.

The removal of older capacity is unlikely to get anywhere near this magnitude. Normally, scrapping takes out about 300,000-400,000 TEU in a year. Currently vessels that are older than 25 years make up only 650,000 TEU.

"The carriers will not be able to scrap themselves out of this situation," Mr Grossgart said.