SIMIC

More than 1,000 days after the Galaxy Leader seizure ushered in shipping’s Red Sea crisis, the container sector could be approaching something resembling normality on the Suez route before the end of the year.

Lars Jensen, one of container shipping’s most prominent analysts, argued yesterday that the pace at which carriers are restoring services makes a normalisation by the end of 2026 increasingly plausible.

“At this pace it might be reasonable to see a normalization by end-2026,” Jensen wrote on LinkedIn yesterday, while cautioning that some services could continue routing around Africa as carriers seek to absorb excess capacity released by shorter voyages.

His comments follow Mediterranean Shipping Co’s (MSC) decision this week to officially restore Suez routings on four major east-west services: Jade and Tiger between Asia and the Mediterranean, Albatros between Asia and northern Europe, and Himalaya linking India and the Mediterranean.

Alphaliner noted that MSC has already tested the route with megamax tonnage, including the 20,300 teu MSC Oliver and 23,782 teu MSC Amelia, both making dark passages with AIS switched off through the Red Sea.

Switching the four services back through Suez allows MSC to operate each rotation with two fewer ships, potentially releasing eight vessels back into a market where available tonnage remains extremely tight.

Linerlytica reports Maersk has also accelerated its return, completing 11 Bab el-Mandeb transits in both directions last week, behind CMA CGM’s 15. Maersk says more than 30% of its previously Cape-routed volumes have already returned to Suez.

The Suez Canal Authority is already seeing the impact, reporting a “considerable increase” in Maersk containership passages. Overall canal traffic recently reached its highest level since January 2024, although volumes remain 41% below pre-crisis levels.

Jensen noted that MSC, Maersk and parts of the Ocean Alliance are now back on the route, while Premier Alliance cargo is also effectively returning through slots on MSC’s Tiger service.

The extraordinary part is that the security crisis itself is far from resolved.

Houthi attacks against Saudi-linked shipping continue, with the Saudi VLCC Amzan struck off Yanbu this week, while war-risk insurance costs for Red Sea voyages have risen sharply again.