上海国际海事信息与文献网

        集装箱航运业在2022年又将迎来非常强劲的一年，但惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings ）预计其2023年将面临挑战，这可能会导致对行业纪律的考验，或者说，鉴于高额的现金余额、更加巩固的市场地位和多样化的螺栓收购，各公司是否处于比上一次低迷时期时更好的位置。

 

        我们预计集装箱航运公司的业绩在2022年将保持强劲，因为集装箱运费仍保持着特别高的水平——尽管自2022年2月以来，由于新冠疫情有关的长期运营中断造成的港口拥堵开始得到了缓和。我们设想，为确保2022年的运力而签署的合同，其运费可能高于2021年，将支持集装箱运输业绩。新船交付量最早也要到2023年才会大到足以降低运费。

 

        此外，我们预计供应链的任何进一步中断都会阻止港口拥挤状况的短期缓解。与新冠疫情有关的封锁限制了港口工人和卡车运输能力的可用性，导致等待时间延长。美国西海岸主要港口的拥堵情况最近略有缓解，但这可能是短暂的，因为在上海重新开放后，中国的整体出境贸易量有所恢复。港口拥堵问题是过去18个月集装箱运价上升到特殊水平的主要原因。

 

        虽然我们预计2022年将是该行业的另一个强势年，但我们预计新冠疫情引发的货物消费超过服务消费，以及供应链中的其他低效率，将大幅下降。此外，从2023年开始，随着2020年签订的订单开始交付，船舶供应的增加可能会压制运费。2023年较高的船舶运力可能会导致整体船舶供应超过需求近4个百分点。

Container Shipping Near-Term Prospects Remain Strong

 

Container shipping is poised for another very strong year in 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects challenges in 2023, which could result in a test of the industry’s discipline or whether companies are better placed than in the last downturn, given the high cash balances, more consolidated market positions and diversifying bolt-on acquisitions.

 

We expect container shipping companies’ performance to remain strong in 2022 as container freight rates stay exceptionally high – despite some moderation since February 2022, due to port congestion stemming from the prolonged Covid-19-related operational disruptions. We envisage the contracts signed to secure capacity for 2022, which were likely at higher freight rates than in 2021, will support container-shipping performance. New vessel deliveries will not be large enough to reduce freight rates until 2023 at the earliest.

 

Furthermore, we anticipate any further disruptions in the supply chain to stall any near-term easing of port congestion. Covid-19-related restrictions limited the availability of port workers and trucking capacity, leading to longer waiting times. Port congestion on the major US West Coast ports has eased slightly recently, but this could be short-lived as overall outbound trade volumes out of China recover following Shanghai’s re-opening. The port congestion issues were the dominant reason for the increase in container freight rates to exceptional levels over the past 18 months.

 

While we expect 2022 to be another strong year for the industry, we anticipate that the Covid-19-induced consumption of goods over services, and other inefficiencies in the supply chain, will fall significantly. In addition, an increase in vessel supply from 2023, as the orderbook contracted from 2020 starts to get delivered, could suppress freight rates. Higher vessel capacity in 2023 is likely to lead to overall vessel supply exceeding demand by close to 4pp.