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US became net petroleum exporter in September

PostTime:2019-11-15 11:24:43 View:34

September marked the first month in recorded history that the US exported more total crude oil and petroleum products than it imported, according to preliminary data and model estimates released by the US Energy Information Administration. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA said that the US became of net exporter of petroleum in September, exporting 140,000 b/d of total petroleum and other liquids after importing 850,000 b/d in August. “If confirmed in survey-collected monthly data, it would be the first time the United States exported more petroleum than it imported since EIA records began in 1949,” EIA said in the report. US net imports of petroleum peaked at 13.44 million b/d in August 2006, according to the EIA, but have fallen steadily as US oil output has climbed to record levels. By the end of 2020, EIA forecasts the US will export nearly 1.5 million b/d of petroleum and other liquids. The US remains a net importer of crude oil with 3.44 million b/d of net imports in September. US net imports of crude will average 4 million b/d this year, down from 5.72 million b/d in 2018, but will climb slightly to 4.09 million b/d in 2020, EIA said. SUPPLY US crude oil output will average a record 13.03 million b/d this month, crossing the 13 million b/d threshold a month earlier than expected as domestic production climbs to 13.41 million by November 2020, EIA said. While EIA said it expects US crude oil production to grow faster than forecast a month earlier, overall production growth will be slow compared to recent years. For example, EIA forecasts US oil output to increase by 380,000 b/d over the next year, compared to 1.03 million b/d of growth from November 2018 to November 2019 and 1.93 million b/d of growth from November 2017 to November 2018. Overall, EIA forecasts US crude oil production to average 12.29 million b/d this year, up from 10.99 million in 2018 and 30,000 b/d more than the agency forecast last month for 2019. EIA forecasts US crude output to average 13.29 million b/d in 2020, up 120,000 b/d from last month’s forecast for 2020. OPEC oil production increased by 1.33 million b/d month on month to 29.52 million b/d in October as Saudi Arabia restored output hit by the Abqaiq attack, EIA said. Saudi Arabia pumped 9.8 million b/d in October, up from 8.5 million b/d. “A number of indications suggest that some of the supply- and demand-side risks that affected oil market participants in the third quarter have begun to diminish,” the report said, pointing to the restored Saudi production and some indications that concerns about lower economic growth may be receding. Iraq and the UAE each pumped an additional 50,000 b/d in October, bringing their output to 4.7 million b/d for Iraq and 3.2 million b/d for UAE, EIA said. Ecuador saw the sharpest month-on-month drop, with output falling 90,000 b/d to 450,000 b/d in October, according to EIA estimates, as a result of protests against the cancellation of fuel subsidies and other austerity measures. Sanctions-hit Iran and Venezuela both had steady October production, with Iran at 2.1 million b/d and Venezuela at 650,000 b/d, EIA said. EIA now expects OPEC oil production to average 29.8 million b/d in 2019 and 29.52 million b/d in 2020. PRICES EIA’s crude oil price forecasts remained relatively unchanged from last month. Brent spot prices are forecast to average $63.59/b in 2019 and $60.10/b in 2020, 22 cents and 17 cents higher, respectively, from last month’s forecast. EIA forecasts WTI to average $56.45/b in 2019 and $54.60/b in 2020, 19 cents and 17 cents higher, respectively, from last month’s forecast.

Global trade is likely contracting and we’re now ‘betting’ on a US-China deal, OECD chief says

PostTime:2019-11-15 11:13:43 View:33

Investment and trade growth at the moment are reliant on a deal between the U.S. and China, the secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) told CNBC. “Yesterday, he (President Donald Trump) made a presentation at the Economic Club (in New York) and basically he said ‘Yes, maybe we’re close to a deal with China’ — we’re betting on that,” Angel Gurria told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed in Paris. “The rate of growth of trade has come down from 5.5% in 2017 to basically flat. In fact, maybe as we speak, trade is going negative, it’s contracting. Investment — as a consequence because of the uncertainty — went from 5% growth to about 1% growth now and it’s slowing down further. “Therefore growth has dropped precipitously over a short period of time,” he said. In September, the OECD cut its global growth forecasts, predicting that the global economy will see its weakest growth in 2019, predicting growth of 2.9%, since the financial crisis in 2008-2009. It predicted 3% growth in 2020. The forecasts were down from its May outlook when it predicted the global economy would grow 3.2% this year and 3.4% in 2020. Gurria told CNBC that “if we continue to take decisions along the lines of more protectionism or more problems with trade etc, if there are more tensions, then the consequences can be even worse.” Then, in its “Interim Economic Outlook,” the organization warned that “global economy has become increasingly fragile and uncertain, with growth slowing and downside risks continuing to mount.” It said economic prospects were weakening for both advanced and emerging economies, “and global growth could get stuck at persistently low levels without firm policy action from governments.” Green shoots? Global growth forecasts are largely dependent right now on the outcome of trade talks between the U.S. and China. If both sides can agree the first phase of a trade deal, that could see both sides remove some existing tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of each other’s imports. If talks cannot produce an agreement, both China and the U.S. are set to impose even more tariffs on December 15. The signs are not looking that positive with talks appearing to reach a stalemate. Speaking to the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his trade attack on China, calling the nation “cheaters.” Trump said that the first phase of a trade deal “could happen soon” but threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods “very substantially” if a deal doesn’t happen, Reuters reported. Economists and strategists tend to agree that a trade deal would be a game changer for the positive of negative direction of global growth. Asked if he could see any green shoots in parts of the global economy right now, Arend Kapteyn, the global head of Economics and Strategy Research at UBS, told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche that “we can’t see them.” “Our narrative is that we’re running at very, very low global growth levels … and it doesn’t get better for the next three quarters and actually we’re going to hit a bit of an air pocket in the first half of next year because we’re still seeing these existing (trade) tariffs feeding themselves into the data,” he said Wednesday. “If there is no tariff rollback, you’re going to see a hit to the retail sector in the first half of next year … If there is a deal and it’s much more comprehensive and the (December) tariffs don’t happen, we will be changing the forecasts and we would expect to start seeing green shoots but we’re not seeing it yet,” he said.

Latest Chinese Numbers Show Economy Dragging

PostTime:2019-11-15 10:43:44 View:34

China’s economy is showing fresh signs of weakness even as inflation continues to tick higher–a conundrum for policy makers as the trade dispute with the U.S. drags on. Readings of economic growth slowed further in October, government data showed on Thursday, with disappointing numbers in industrial output, household consumption and fixed-asset investment. China’s official National Bureau of Statistics said value-added industrial output in October was up 4.7% from a year earlier, slowing from September’s 5.8% pace and short of the median 5.2% forecast of 15 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Retail sales were up 7.2%, likewise slowing from September’s 7.8% pace and missing the 7.8% forecast. Fixed-asset investment in urban areas, a closely watched indicator of construction activity, was up 5.2% in the first 10 months of 2019 from a year earlier, slowing from January-September’s 5.4%, and again short of economists’ expectations. The main drag was by weakness in property and infrastructure construction, official data showed. Taken together, the weak economic figures add to evidence that the world’s second-largest economy is broadly slowing–as consumer inflation accelerates, driven by surging pork prices. “There are many external uncertainties: Domestic cyclical issues have coincided with structural issues,” Liu Aihua, a spokeswoman for the statistics bureau, told reporters on Thursday. “Downward pressure on the economy has increased continuously. Risks and challenges we are facing cannot be underestimated.” Ms. Liu also highlighted some positive news: The urban jobless rate fell slightly to 5.1% last month, with the unemployment rate for university graduates ages 20 to 24 falling more than one full percentage point, official surveys showed. Explaining the resilience in the labor market, she cited a stronger service sector, more flexible job options in the startup economy and governmental efforts. Ms. Liu told reporters that she expected governmental measures–which include tax cuts, monetary easing and some infrastructure spending–to have an effect, and expressed confidence that headline economic growth for the year would hit Beijing’s target of 6.0% to 6.5%. Growth in the third quarter slowed to 6.0%. Even so, economists warned about further challenges, as expectations for higher inflation set in and sluggish domestic demand continues to weigh on the economy. Last week, officials said China’s main gauge of consumer inflation hit 3.8% in October, the highest level in nearly eight year. Many economists expect further rises in the coming months, with the rate perhaps hitting 6% in the new year. The statistics bureau’s Ms. Liu said that core consumer inflation, which excludes volatile food and oil prices, is a more indicative gauge of price levels than the headline inflation number. Thursday’s disappointing industrial-production reading reflects slack demand both at home and abroad, said Hunter Chan, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong, who said the government Beijing has to do more to stimulate domestic demand. He expects Beijing to lower borrowing rates and approve more local government spending next year. Even with slower overall investment numbers, China’s property sector remains a rare bright spot. Both housing sales and new construction starts picked up, even as the government tightened controls to stamp out real-estate speculation. But most economists expect the real-estate sector to moderate, exerting further downward pressure on the economy, as the regulatory tightening causes financing in the sector to dry up.

OPEC Sees Smaller 2020 Oil Surplus, Expects Shale Growth to Slow

PostTime:2019-11-15 10:08:23 View:37

Crude Oil Price Movements The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value declined by $2.45, or 3.9%, month-on-month (m-o-m) in October to settle at $59.91/b. In October, ICE Brent was on average $2.65, or 4.3%, m-o-m lower at $59.63/b, and NYMEX WTI fell m-o-m by $2.96, or 5.2%, to average $54.01/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent was $9.37, or 12.7%, lower at $64.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI declined by $10.46, or 15.6%, to $56.76/b, compared with the same period a year earlier. The backwardation price structures of both ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened in October, mainly in prompt forward months, while the NYMEX WTI market structure was slightly in contango for most of October. Hedge funds and other money managers were more concerned about the outlook of crude oil prices in October than they had been in the previous month. World Economy The global economic growth forecast remains at 3.0% for both 2019 and 2020. Growth forecasts for all major regions remain unchanged for 2019. For 2020 a small downward revision is expected for the Euro-zone and Brazil’s forecast was revised up slightly. Euro-zone growth remains at 1.2% for 2019 but was revised down to 1.0% for 2020. Japan’s growth forecast is unchanged at 0.9% for 2019 and 0.3% for 2020. China and India’s growth forecast were also unchanged, standing at 6.2% and 6.1% for 2019 and 5.9% and 6.7% for 2020, respectively. Brazil’s 2019 growth forecast remains unchanged at 0.8%, while the 2020 forecast was revised up slightly to 1.6%. Russia’s forecast remains at 1.0% for 2019 and 1.2% for 2020. Risk remains skewed toward the downside, especially with underlying trade-related issues and associated uncertainties. World Oil Demand In 2019, global oil demand growth was unchanged, despite some upward revisions to the Middle East in 3Q19 and 4Q19 offset by downward revision in OECD Americas, mainly to reflect weaker-than-expected demand in OECD Americas during 2Q19 and 3Q19. Global oil demand growth is estimated at 0.98 mb/d. In 2020, oil demand growth is forecast at 1.08 mb/d, also unchanged from the last month’s report. Other Asia and China are assumed to be the largest contributors to oil demand growth with a combined addition of 0.68 mb/d. The OECD is projected to increase by 0.07 mb/d. Non-OECD is assumed to be the largest contributor to oil demand growth, rising by 1.01 mb/d. World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2019 remains at 1.82 mb/d y-o-y, as higher-than-expected oil production in Canada, the UK and Kazakhstan, was offset by downward adjusted production data for the US, and Indonesia, among others. The US, Brazil, China, the UK, Australia and Canada are the key drivers of growth in 2019 while Mexico and Norway are projected to see the largest declines. Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2020 was revised down by 36 tb/d from last month’s assessment and is now forecast to grow by 2.17 mb/d, mainly due to the US, which was revised down by 33 tb/d to now show growth of 1.5 mb/d for the year. The US, Brazil, Norway, Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia are expected to be the main growth drivers for next year, while Mexico, Indonesia Egypt the UK, Colombia and Egypt are forecast to see the largest declines. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 was revised down by 11 tb/d and is now expected to grow by 0.04 mb/d. For 2020, OPEC NGLs growth is forecast at 0.03 mb/d y-o-y. In October, OPEC crude oil production increased by 943 tb/d to average 29.65 mb/d, according to secondary sources. Product Markets and Refining Operations Product markets in October saw a mixed performance. In the Atlantic Basin, markets strengthened as heavy refinery maintenance works led to restricted product output, supporting product prices as well as refining economics. Another supporting factor this month was the recovery in naphtha markets in the US and Europe, as crack spreads for the same product trended upward for the second consecutive month, re-entering positive territory in the USGC. Meanwhile, in Asia, robust y-o-y growth in product output amid refining capacity additions in China has contributed to a rise in product inventory levels in Singapore, which weighed on Asian product markets. The sanctions applied last month on some Chinese ships and the resulting hike in freight rates led to a severe weakening in fuel oil markets in all regions, with the largest impact being felt in Asia. Tanker Market A host of factors in the tanker market in October pushed rates to record highs on all major routes. The market had been expecting a seasonal pickup in demand and some tightness on the tanker availability side, as tankers were scheduled to be taken out of the market to install scrubbers ahead of IMO 2020. However, geopolitical developments, such as the announcement of sanctions on two subsidiaries of one of the largest shippers in the world, China’s Cosco, led to panic fixing and rates surged. While rates quickly fell back, average dirty spot freight rates in October were more than doubled m-o-m and were sharply higher y-o-y. Clean rates were also pulled higher, as some clean ships were repurposed to carry dirty freight, resulting in a lower, but still considerable, increase on average in clean spot freight rates. Stock Movements Preliminary data for September showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 23.5 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,945 mb, which is 87.7 mb higher than the same time one year ago, and 28.2 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 13.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 12.5 mb above the latest fiveyear average, while product stocks also decreased by 9.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 15.7 mb above the latest fiveyear average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.7 days m-o-m in September to stand at 60.8 days, which is 1.6 days above the same period in 2018, but 0.8 days below the latest five-year average. Balance of Supply and Demand Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 was unchanged from the previous report to stand at 30.7 mb/d, which is 0.9 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 also remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 29.6 mb/d, which is around 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2019 level.

Daewoo Shipbuilding suffers 296 bln-won net loss in Q3 on one-off costs

PostTime:2019-11-15 10:06:22 View:21

Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., a major South Korean shipbuilder, on Thursday reported a third-quarter net loss of 296.4 billion won (US$253 million) due to one-off costs. Daewoo Shipbuilding’s net losses for the three months ending Sept. 30 narrowed from 323.9 billion won deficit a year ago, but the result is still a disappointing turnaround from the two previous quarters when the company stayed in the black. The shipbuilder also posted an operating loss of 256.3 billion won in the July-September period, marking its first loss in seven quarters. Sales dipped 11.4 percent on-year to 1.94 trillion won. Daewoo Shipbuilding blamed its poor performance on one-off costs related to a drill ship order cancellation and increased fixed costs. Daewoo Shipbuilding has so far won orders for 26 vessels worth $5.35 billion this year, achieving 64 percent of its annual target of $8.37 billion.

Yang Ming Reports Its Financial Results for 2019 Q3

PostTime:2019-11-15 10:04:13 View:20

Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation (Yang Ming) held its 340th Board Meeting on November 13th, 2019 to approve its 2019 Q3 financial report. Consolidated revenues for the third quarter totaled NTD 37.78 billion (USD 1.22 billion). Business volumes increased by 1.99% year-over-year to 1.44 million TEUs. Yang Ming’s net loss after tax for the third quarter was NTD 1.38 billion (USD 44.43 million). Year-to-date consolidated revenues increased by 9.59%, year-over-year, to NTD 113.26 billion (USD 3.65 billion), a year–over-year volume increase of 3.84% to 4.07 million TEUs. The net loss after tax for the first three quarters was NTD 3.32 billion (USD 106.89 million), an improvement of 50.19% year-over-year. Yang Ming’s third quarter results were impacted by its strategic decision to not exercise options with respect to certain formerly chartered vessels. By opting out, the company incurred obligations under the charter parties, which were then recorded as potential impact as mandated by the International Financial Reporting Standards. The potential effect of the arrangement were estimated at NTD 1.39 billion (USD 44.75 million) and lowered Yang Ming’s third quarter results, which otherwise would have showed a profitable quarter. Nevertheless, Yang Ming’s cash flow and operations were not affected and the company continues to see encouraging results. According to analyst firm, Alphaliner’s latest projections, annual capacity growth is forecast at 3.7% and global throughput growth for 2019 is estimated at only 2.5%, which suggests a softer market demand than was previously expected. Meanwhile, the container shipping market remains vulnerable to trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. It is unclear the extent of potential impact those tensions and uncertainties will have on demand. Despite unpredictable market conditions, Yang Ming has improved its volume and revenue largely due to the efforts of business strategy and competitiveness enhancements. Looking ahead, the container shipping market will undoubtedly need to be prepared for continued world economic and trade volatility. However, based on the data collected by Alphaliner, the estimated market demand growth at 2.8% is moving closer to the capacity growth at 3.3% in 2020. Furthermore, the containership orderbook-to-fleet ratio has fallen to its lowest recorded level at 11%. In addition, due to the new IMO 2020 regulation that will enter into force next year, it is expected that the supply-demand gap will gradually narrow. Started last year, Yang Ming already redelivered thirteen of its high-cost chartered vessels and there will be another five next year, coupled with its future newly-built containerships, Yang Ming’s operating cost will be greatly optimized. Anticipating ongoing US-China trade disputes and a shift in the global supply chain, Yang Ming will continue to optimize its Intra-Asia service network. With the addition of a new member joining THE Alliance in the upcoming year, the partnership will be poised to significantly strengthen its service portfolio and increase its competitiveness. The partnership which has been extended for another ten years will provide customers with greater stability and long-term commitment in the future.

Hapag-Lloyd doubles operational result in the first nine months

PostTime:2019-11-15 09:37:18 View:23

In the first nine months of 2019, Hapag-Lloyd’s earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) significantly increased to EUR 643 million (9M 2018: EUR 299 million). The group net result rose substantially to EUR 297 million (9M 2018: EUR 13 million). Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) surpassed EUR 1.5 billion (9M 2018: EUR 812 million). The EBITDA increase of EUR 699 million includes a positive effect of approximately EUR 341 million caused by the new reporting standards IFRS 16. After the first nine months of the year, revenues rose to approximately EUR 9.5 billion (9M 2018: EUR 8.5 billion). The transport volume rose by 1.2 percent to 9,011 TTEU (9M 2018: 8,900 TTEU), and the average freight rate climbed by 4.2 percent to 1,075 USD/TEU (9M 2018: 1,032 USD/TEU). Transport expenses increased by 3.5 percent, in particular due to a slightly higher average bunker consumption price of USD 425 per tonne (9M 2018: USD 406 per tonne) and a stronger average US dollar exchange rate against the euro. Image: Hapag-Lloyd “We have achieved a very respectable result after nine months: Despite geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions, we benefitted from higher transport volumes and better freight rates and also kept a close eye on our costs. And the same holds true for our strategic goal of becoming number one for quality,” said Rolf Habben Jansen, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Hapag-Lloyd. For the full financial year 2019, Hapag-Lloyd expects an EBITDA in the range of EUR 1.6 to 2.0 billion and an EBIT in the range of EUR 0.5 to 0.9 billion. Based on the business development in the first nine months of 2019, it can currently be assumed that EBITDA and EBIT will be in the upper part of the guided ranges. This includes a currently expected earnings effect from the first-time application of the accounting standards IFRS 16 on EBITDA of EUR 370 to 470 million and on EBIT of EUR 10 to 50 million. The effects of the first-time application of IFRS 16 are also currently expected to be in the upper part of the guided ranges.

China releases guideline to build world-class ports

PostTime:2019-11-14 09:52:26 View:39

Chinese authorities on Wednesday released a guideline to accelerate the building of world-class ports, outlining major tasks and a timetable for the sector’s development. By 2025, China aims to achieve breakthroughs in green, smart and safe development of major ports, with enhanced scale at regional and other ports, according to the guideline released by nine government agencies including the Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission. By 2035, major ports should advance to world-class levels and by 2050, several world-class port clusters should be formed, with leading development levels. The guideline listed 19 major tasks, including boosting service capacities, promoting low-carbon energy consumption, speeding up intelligent logistics and optimizing the business environment. To ensure implementation, the guideline urged local governments to include port development in regional economic and social planning and strengthen policy support for port projects. Official data showed cargo throughput at China’s ports reached 10.3 billion tonnes in the first three quarters, up 5.2 percent year on year.

Global economy ‘breakdown’ seen putting more workers at risk of slavery

PostTime:2019-11-14 09:46:15 View:40

The world’s economic model has “broken down” as the business practices of multinational corporations and digital platforms put a growing number of workers at risk of exploitation and modern slavery, according to a leading labor rights campaigner. Too many companies are failing to take responsibility for workers in their supply chains, while governments must do more to hold firms to account on labor rights, said Sharan Burrow, head of the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC). About two billion people – more than 60% of the world’s workforce – are in informal work, leaving them vulnerable to being underpaid, overworked and treated like slaves, she said. And the rise of digital platforms from food to taxi apps where workers lack proper contracts and social protections means that key rights such as a living wage, trade unionization and fair working conditions are under growing threat, Burrow added. “The world’s employment framework has broken down … we need a new social contract to clean up forced labor,” said Burrow, the ITUC general secretary and a speaker at the Thomson Reuters Foundation’s annual Trust Conference on Wednesday. “If you don’t have the rule of law, from corporate or responsible business conduct to government regulation … nobody is going to be in a position to look towards a secure future.” The ITUC, which has more than 207 million members, says it is the world’s leading body fighting for the rights of workers. About 25 million people are estimated to be victims of forced labor, and companies are facing rising consumer pressure to clean up their supply chains with the issue in the spotlight since the United Nations set a target of ending slavery by 2030. Burrow called upon businesses to do more to identify the risk of exploitation and slavery in their operations and provide workers with avenues to report abuse without fear of reprisals, and urged governments to ensure labor rights are respected. She pointed to Qatar – which relies on about 2 million migrant workers for the bulk of its workforce – as a positive example of how pressure from labor rights groups over what they described as modern slavery could lead to broad labor reforms. Doha last month announced a new minimum wage law and steps to end the “kafala” sponsorship system, which binds workers to one employer and has been criticized as abusive. Yet the global outlook for workers’ rights is concerning, Burrow said, citing recent ITUC research that showed workers had no or restricted access to justice in 72% of countries and found a spike in the number of nations blocking trade unionization. “For workers, the struggle continues for fundamental rights, a minimum living wage, the right to bargain collectively, and the guarantee of a safe workplace,” she said. “Every business … and government must be held to account.”

World Bank: Europe Must Focus on Creating Strong, Shared and Resilient Growth to Safeguard Against the Worst Impacts of Sudden Economic Shocks

PostTime:2019-11-14 09:19:25 View:34

European Union member states must strengthen their institutions for resilient growth to shield against economic crises, protect the most vulnerable and ensure incomes can rebound quickly, says a new World Bank report. The latest European Union Regular Economic Report- entitled Including Institutions -outlines priorities for countries to most effectively respond in the event of an unexpected downturn. Three critical factors are identified. First, countries must secure strong overall growth, both at the country level and in lagging regions. Second, the benefits of growth – jobs and incomes – must be shared among all citizens. Third, growth must be resilient so that incomes, if hit hard, can quickly rebound. ‘The report learns from the lessons of Europe’s recent crises, which caused median household incomes across the EU to fall by five percent between 2007 and 2014, and by 13 percent in southern Europe,’ said Arup Banerji,Regional Director for the European Union Countries at the World Bank. ‘In fact, the World Bank’s calculations show that the number of people in the EU earning below €23 per day rose to a high of 105 million in 2013. But recovery, first in central Europe and more recently in southern Europe, has reversed the trend – and we expect the number of such lower-income people to soon drop below 85 million, fewer than in 2008.’ The report shows that the resilience of growth varied considerably across European countries. The countries where household incomes were most resilient had a mix of policies marked by flexible labor markets paired with active labor market policies and protection for the poorest, together with competition and regulatory policies that allow firms to quickly adjust production and new firms to enter. Of particular importance is the role of poverty-targeted social protection institutions – not yet universal in the EU – that can quickly absorb those who are at risk of falling into poverty when shocks hit. The report’s analysis also underlines the role of a policy environment marked by trust between government, labor unions and the private sector – which leads to better formulation of the sorts of institutions most conducive to safeguarding economies against major shocks such as those experienced since 2008. Banerji added: ‘People’s confidence in the institutions that govern them plays a fundamental role in the economic stability of a nation. High levels of inequality and distrust can put that stability in jeopardy and restrict a government’s response to an unforeseen crisis. The stronger a country’s institutions are, the quicker it will be able to rebound, recovering jobs and economic activity, after a slowdown.’ The report highlights a ‘vicious cycle’ whereby an increase in inequality erodes public trust, which weakens the resilience of national institutions. In turn, those weaker institutions are then shown to perpetuate increased distrust among the public. Half of the EU’s 28 Member States were found to have below average levels of public trust in their governing institutions. ‘Some EU countries need to find new ways to absorb economic shocks effectively while ensuring that the eventual rebound will be inclusive and not leave sections of society behind. That’s a major trust problem Europe is facing today,’ Rogier van den Brink,Lead Economist at the World Bank, ‘Lack of trust has implications for volatility in employment and competitiveness, while higher levels of trust lead to more output and sustained levels of household income.’

OPEC+ market management needed to spur oil industry investment: UAE minister

PostTime:2019-11-14 09:08:01 View:37

OPEC and its allies should be commended for helping prop up the oil market, as without their efforts, the industry would be suffering from an even more dire drop-off in investment that would lead to a looming supply crunch, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said Wednesday. OPEC has estimated that some $10.6 trillion in industry spending will be needed across the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors through 2040 to meet expected oil demand, which will grow by 12% from current levels to reach 110.6 million b/d. “We need to work harder as an industry to replace the reserves that we deplete,” Mazrouei said at an oil conference in Abu Dhabi. “And guess what, it’s not cheap. Year on year it’s getting more expensive.” Ayed al-Qahtani, OPEC’s research division director, said the industry lost some $500 billion in investments during the oil price malaise of 2015 and 2016. “When you talk about a stable, safe comfortable environment for investors to put their money, I think OPEC+ through their efforts have undertaken the responsibility of stabilizing the market,” Qahtani said during a panel session at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference. “This is for the sake of saving the industry for decades to come.” Bruising battle OPEC, Russia and nine other non-OPEC allies are almost three years into their pact to put aside a bruising market share battle and cut production to reverse a slump in oil prices that began in 2014. The current agreement calls on the 24-country coalition to cut 1.2 million b/d through March. Ministers will meet December 5-6 in Vienna to discuss the future of the deal, with several officials indicating that the cuts will likely be extended at the same levels through the end of 2020. Some analysts have speculated that the coalition may need deeper cuts to prevent another price fall, with many forecasts predicting lackluster demand growth and surging non-OPEC supplies, particularly from the US. Mazrouei, however, noted that even US shale producers are seeing reservoir problems with larger water cuts. A recent report by the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers and the Independent Petroleum Association of America found that every barrel of oil produced in the Permian Basin comes with about three barrels of water, and the storage and disposal of that water could become increasingly problematic. US softening “We see a softening of what the US can produce,” Mazrouei said. “Challenges will happen as reservoirs get aged.” OPEC’s World Oil Outlook forecasts that US tight oil production, which includes NGLs, will peak in 2029 at 17.4 million b/;d, compared with 10.2 million b/d in 2018, before falling back to 14.5 million b/d in 2040. OPEC members will likely be needed to fill the supply gap, according to the report. “It takes great efforts from this industry, and it comes at a cost,” Mazrouei said. “We need a group like OPEC+, and we need collaboration.” He also decried what he said was the unfair characterization of OPEC as a cartel. “You call us cartel and these names,” he said. “I think it’s time to stop calling us these names. We are working for the benefit of the world economy.”

Piracy and Sea Robbery Situation in Asia for October 2019

PostTime:2019-11-14 08:59:18 View:25

ReCAAP Information Sharing Centre released the October 2019 Monthly Report on Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia. Overall Summary A total of seven incidents of armed robbery against ships were reported in Asia in October 2019 No piracy incident was reported There were also no reports of abduction of crew in the Sulu-Celebes Seas and waters off Eastern Sabah; and no hijacking of ships for theft of oil cargo reported in October 2019 However, the abduction of crew for ransom in the Sulu-Celebes Seas and waters off Eastern Sabah remains a serious concern ReCAAP ISC is also concerned about the increase in the number of incidents reported on board ships while underway in the Singapore Strait Cover: ReCAAP’s October 2019 Monthly Report. Click on image to download PDF. Number of Incidents In October 2019, seven incidents of armed robbery against ships were reported Of the seven incidents, five were actual incidents and two were attempted incidents Status of Ships Three incidents occurred on board ships while underway in the Singapore Strait Four incidents on board ships anchored at ports and anchorages in India and Indonesia Significance Level of Incidents Of the five actual incidents reported in October 2019, one was a CAT 2 incident and four were CAT 4 incidents The CAT 2 incident occurred on board a bulk carrier while underway in the Singapore Strait; five perpetrators armed with gun and jungle knife boarded the bulk carrier, threatened the duty oiler and tied his hands, stole engine spares and escaped As for the four CAT 4 incidents, two incidents occurred in Indonesia (Cigading Anchorage and Dumai Anchorage), one occurred in the Singapore Strait and one off Gopnath Point, India